Eirik Berger Abel

About me

I’m a PhD Research Scholar at Norwegian School of Economics in Bergen and the labor economics section of the Centre for Experimental Research on Fairness, Inequality and Rationality.

I do research in labor economics and economic history using modern register data and novel sources of individual-level data from the early 20th century to the present. I’m particularly interested in the evolution of inequity and social mobility over time.

I will be on the academic job market in 2023/2024. You can find my academic CV here.

Email: eirik.berger@gmail.com


Job market paper

Living the American Dream: How Norway Became a High-Mobility Country

Paper

I estimate long-run trends in intergenerational mobility in income in Norway during a period that includes World War II and the creation of the welfare state. To overcome the challenge of data availability, I digitize and link a novel dataset with more than 16 million observations from tax records between 1924 and 1964 to data on family ties from historical censuses and modern administrative data. I show that persistence between fathers and sons in the income percentile rank was high in the early 20th century but decreased substantially for cohorts born between the 1920s and 1940s. The convergence of rural and urban areas explains about half of the total fall in persistence. First, I link this result to changes in education by using plausibly exogenous variation in the intensity of schooling from a primary school reform, which reduced the gap between cities and rural areas, and find that it significantly decreased persistence. Second, I show that the return to education fell considerably over time, particularly at the beginning of World War II. Comparing persistence for a set of father-son pairs but using income for the father measured just before and after the occupation of Norway during World War II, I find about 13 percent lower persistence in income percentile ranks. These results suggest that equal access to education and low income inequality are two key drivers behind Norway's transition to high mobility.

In progress

The Making of Equality: How the Second World War Shaped the Norwegian Income Distribution (with Ran Abramitzky and Kjell Gunnar Salvanes)

Throughout history, wars and episodes of violent disruption have often been associated with reductions in economic inequality. However, the underlying dynamics and mechanisms behind the reduction in inequality during wars are less understood. This paper explores these dynamics and mechanisms in the context of Norway. We have four main findings. First, we document a large wage decline in income inequality in Norway that occurred during World War II and persisted until the mid-1960s. Second, we show that this decline in inequality was a result of convergence between occupations and across municipalities. Third, we use a newly digitized individual-level panel of official tax records, to estimate the effect of wartime local labor market shocks on employment, earnings, and inequality. Specifically, we test the effects of price shocks of food and forestry product on local labor markets and of wartime investment in industrial infrastructure, airports, and defense installations. Comparing regions that received investments with similar regions that did not, we find short run and long-lasting effects both on employment and income of investments in manufacturing, as well as strong effects on income in areas affected by the enormous wartime price increase of fish, agricultural food, and forest products.
Fertility, Family Formation and Human Capital (with Aline Butikofer and Kjell Gunnar Salvanes)

By varying the intensity of compulsory schooling while keeping the number of compulsory school years constant, this paper generates new insights into the effect of human capital on fertility on the extensive and intensive margin. We leverage population-wide panel data for Norway in combination with a school reform in the 1930s changing the instruction time during the school year that allows us to isolate the effect of human capital investment on fertility behavior across the life-cycle from an incarceration effect. We present robust evidence of reduced total fertility driven mostly by an increase in the share of women with one or no children and an increase in the age at first birth by around four months.
Norwegian Tax Returns from the 20th Century: An Automated Machine Learning Approach (with Kjell Gunnar Salvanes)

| Random data sample

High-quality administrative tax data has been instrumental in advancing economic research over the past several decades. However, the scarcity of data prior to the 1970s has posed a significant obstacle to the study of the distribution of economic outcomes across people and generations in historical settings. We introduce a dataset extending Norwegian tax records to 1900 by meticulously digitizing more than 270,000 pages. The dataset includes most Norwegian regions and data on name, occupation, place of residence, earnings, and wealth. We link observations across years to significantly enhance the usefulness of the data. We argue that the methodologies employed in this paper offer significant potential for application to a wider range of sources and countries.

Other work

Equality before the welfare state: The Norwegian income distribution 1892-1929 (with HÃ¥kon Block Vagle)

| Paper

We estimate the complete income distribution in Norway for 1892, 1906, 1913 and 1929. Compared to previous research, we benefit from better data and more advanced estimation techniques. Our thesis identifies several data weaknesses which have caused bias in previous studies. Much of the data previously used does not distinguish between individual taxpayers and impersonal entities such as stock companies and banks. Another weakness is that before 1921, dividends were not included in the income data. For 1929, the data allows us to create local-level estimates for each Norwegian municipality. We find that the pre-tax, pre-transfers Gini index is stable for the years we analyse, starting at 52 percent in 1892 and ending at 54 percent in 1929. The top 1% income share before taxes and transfers falls over time, declining from 19 percent in 1892 to 12 percent in 1929. We find that shocks to wealth might play a role in this development. Our results differ significantly from those of previous studies. First, we find a Gini index lower than Aaberge, Atkinson and Modalsli (2016). Second, we find lower top incomes and a different development over time than Aaberge, Atkinson and Modalsli (2013). Our results suggest that Norway was already among the most egalitarian countries in Western Europe between 1892 and 1929 in terms of income. However, our estimates are sensitive to total income and to the estimation of stock dividends. Historical estimates from other countries are likely to be sensitive too, leaving a considerable risk of error when comparing.